> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.battlepolicy.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Russia Is Now Short on Air-Defense Missiles Too. The Race Is to Replace Them Cheaply. - URL: https://www.battlepolicy.com/russia-is-now-short-on-air-defense-missiles-too-the-race-is-to-replace-them-cheaply/ - Published: 2026-06-17T19:51:20.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-10T12:37:25.000Z - Description: Ukrainian intelligence says Moscow is burning through its S-300 interceptors faster than it can replace them, and the same arithmetic now drives Ukraine and its partners toward a cheaper interceptor. - Author: Marcus Schuler - Tags: Ukraine, Russia, Europe, air defense, #analysis, Fire Point, hensoldt, Origin Robotics, Lockheed Martin *For four and a half years the air-defense shortage that mattered was Ukraine's. Ukrainian intelligence now says it is Russia's problem too, and the cost of a single interceptor is becoming the war's decisive number.* ## What happened The air-defense shortage that has defined this war has been Ukraine's. Ukrainian intelligence now reports the same pressure building on the Russian side. Three Ukrainian officials told [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-moscow-air-defense-interceptor-shortage-drone-strikes/?ref=battlepolicy.com) this week that Russia is running low on S-300 interceptors, the Soviet-era surface-to-air missile that remains a workhorse of Moscow's defenses against cruise missiles, drones, and some ballistic threats. The officials would not put a figure on the current stockpile, but they described a clear reduction and several reasons for it. Ukrainian intelligence estimates reported by The New Voice of Ukraine had put Russia's reserve of S-300PM and S-400 interceptors above 400 in 2025. Several pressures are draining the stock at once, the officials told CBS News. Russia has been forced to spend interceptors against regular volleys of newer Ukrainian drones, including jet-powered models that fly faster and farther than older types. At the same time, Moscow has repurposed some of its S-300s as offensive surface-to-surface weapons, reconfiguring their trajectories to supplement Iskander-M and Kinzhal strikes on Ukraine. Each S-300 used that way is one fewer left for air defense. The Institute for the Study of War recorded the pace on the night of June 15 to 16: two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 132 drones launched at Ukraine, of which Ukraine downed 114, even as Ukrainian forces ran their own intermediate-range strikes against Russian targets in occupied Luhansk Oblast. ## Ukraine's mid-range strike drones Much of the drain traces to a capability Ukraine lacked a year ago. Its new mid-range strike drones now reach Russian rear areas that for years only Western HIMARS and ATACMS could touch, and they do it at a fraction of the cost. [Business Insider](https://businessinsider.com/ukraine-himars-mid-range-drones-strike-atacms-russia-analysts-2026-6?ref=battlepolicy.com) reviewed footage of these winged drones, built like small aircraft, and quoted ISW analyst George Barros calling them a development "heralding a new phase of the war." Where a Western rocket cost six or seven figures and arrived in limited numbers, a domestically built strike drone costs a few thousand to low tens of thousands of dollars and Ukraine builds them by the thousand. Relay drones stretch the range further: Ukraine's Wardog TRN works as a communications link that pushes mid-range strikes deeper into Russian logistics, Forbes reported. The economics favor the attacker. To stop a cruise missile, Russia spends a comparably expensive interceptor and usually comes out ahead on cost; to stop a swarm of cheap long-range drones, it spends those same interceptors against targets worth a fraction of the missile used to kill them. Ukraine has leaned into the asymmetry deliberately, targeting Russian air-defense systems in occupied Crimea and Luhansk to thin them out, according to CBS News. New systems compound the problem. Ukraine's DART, unveiled this week by its Center of Innovative Technologies Program, launches from a stratospheric balloon at 12 to 18 kilometers, then shuts off its navigation system at about six kilometers and coasts to the target on a fixed course, which renders it immune to the electronic jamming Russia relies on, United24 Media reported. It is small, roughly 13 kilograms, and its designers already plan ballistic and surface-to-air variants. ## Ukraine's own Patriot shortage Ukraine has not solved its own version of the problem. It faces the same shortage from the other side of the front. On June 15, Russia fired 70 missiles and more than 600 drones at Ukraine, the Kyiv Independent reported; of 34 ballistic missiles, 19 were aimed at Kyiv, and the capital's Patriot batteries intercepted 15 of them plus five of six Zircon hypersonic missiles. Five people were killed and 35 injured. Ballistic missiles, nearly impossible to stop because of their speed, remain the hardest target, and Patriot is the only proven system Ukraine has against them. Patriot interceptor stocks are critically low, a shortfall the Kyiv Independent says has deepened as global demand rose following the war in the Persian Gulf. Both arsenals face the same cost problem. A Patriot PAC-3 round runs into the millions of dollars, and an S-300 round, though cheaper, is finite and out of production. Firing either at a drone that costs a few thousand dollars empties the magazine faster than it empties the attacker's, across raids that now reach hundreds of munitions in a single night. ## The cheap-interceptor deals at Eurosatory Eurosatory in Paris this week produced a run of deals built on one template: pair a combat-tested Ukrainian component with European industrial scale, and price it below the legacy interceptor. 1. **Hensoldt and Fire Point.** The German sensor maker Hensoldt and Ukraine's Fire Point signed a memorandum of understanding to develop Freyja, a ground-based ballistic-missile-defense system, [Militär Aktuell](https://militaeraktuell.at/en/hensoldt-and-fire-point-partnership-for-the-freyja-missile-defense-system/?ref=battlepolicy.com) reported. Fire Point is the prime contractor and supplies its FP-7 missile, launchers, and control systems; Hensoldt provides the combat-proven TRML-4D radar. Hensoldt chief executive Oliver Dörre framed it as "a scalable European contribution to ballistic missile defense" and noted that "Ukraine has shown how quickly innovations can emerge under real operational pressure." 2. **Origin Robotics Blaze.** The French defense procurement agency selected the Blaze interceptor drone, built by Latvia's Origin Robotics and integrated by France's DSV, after a competitive evaluation, Militär Aktuell reported separately. France becomes the fourth European operator after Latvia, Belgium, and Estonia, with local assembly to be set up in-country and first deliveries due within weeks. 3. **AI-guided interceptor drones.** Ukraine already fields autonomous interceptors such as the P1-Sun that knock Shahed-type drones out of the sky cheaply, the New York Times reported, preserving scarce missiles for the ballistic threats only Patriot can handle. 4. **Brave France.** Ukraine's Brave1 defense cluster and France's defense innovation agency launched Brave France, a joint grant program with a 20 million euro budget split evenly between the two, Interfax-Ukraine reported, to fund and test exactly this class of system. Lockheed Martin delivered 620 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025, more than 20 percent above the prior year, and signed framework agreements this quarter meant to lift annual output from roughly 600 toward 2,000, Army Recognition and CSIS reported. That ramp scales the premium tier without changing its price, and even 2,000 interceptors a year is a few thousand against drone raids counted in the tens of thousands. ## Why both sides are converging on cheap interceptors The Council on Foreign Relations assessed that Ukraine's drone innovation, including longer-range systems and greater autonomy against jamming, has reversed recent Russian battlefield gains. The interceptor drain now reported on the Russian side reflects the same cost pressure in reverse: a defender who can field a good-enough interceptor for a fraction of a Patriot's price can absorb mass raids, while one who cannot must ration its best munitions for the hardest targets. That shortage estimate still rests on Ukrainian intelligence sources speaking to CBS News, and Moscow has not confirmed it; Russia still operates the newer S-350, S-400, and Pantsir-S1 systems and can launch raids of more than a thousand drones in a week. The estimate is a read of the trend, not a confirmed inventory. The procurement moves at Eurosatory, by contrast, are on the record. ## What to watch - Whether Russia keeps repurposing S-300s for offensive strikes, a tell that cuts both ways: confidence in supply, or willingness to spend down a dwindling stock. - First deliveries of Blaze to France and any field appearance of the Hensoldt-Fire Point Freyja, the near-term test of whether the cheap-interceptor model ships on schedule. - Whether Western interceptor production actually reaches the 2,000-a-year target, or whether the volume tier is ceded to startups building far cheaper drones. - The first systems funded through Brave France, an early read on which European buyers follow the Ukrainian cost model rather than the legacy one. Frequently Asked Questions Is Russia actually running out of air-defense missiles? Three Ukrainian officials told CBS News that Russia is short on S-300 interceptors, citing intelligence estimates. Moscow has not confirmed it, and Russia still operates newer S-350, S-400, and Pantsir-S1 systems, so the claim is a credible trend read rather than a confirmed inventory. Why would cheap drones cause an interceptor shortage? Each interceptor costs far more than the drone it stops. Per CBS News, Russia is spending S-300 rounds against volleys of cheap Ukrainian drones, including jet-powered ones, and has also repurposed S-300s as offensive surface-to-surface missiles, draining the same stock from both ends. Does Ukraine have the same problem? Yes. The Kyiv Independent reports Ukraine is critically short of Patriot interceptors, the only proven system it has against ballistic missiles, after Russia fired 70 missiles and more than 600 drones on June 15 alone. What is the Freyja system? Per Militär Aktuell, Freyja is a ground-based ballistic-missile-defense system being developed by Ukraine's Fire Point as prime contractor, using its FP-7 missile, paired with Germany's Hensoldt supplying the TRML-4D radar. The two signed a memorandum of understanding at Eurosatory 2026. How fast is Western interceptor production growing? Lockheed Martin delivered 620 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025, more than 20 percent above the prior year, and framework agreements aim to raise output from roughly 600 toward 2,000 a year, according to Army Recognition and CSIS. AI-generated summary, reviewed by an editor. [More on our AI guidelines](https://www.battlepolicy.com/ai-guidelines/).