Dear readers,

The freedom of Western democracies rests on more than future production capacity. It also rests on whether allies commit the weapons they already hold when another democracy needs them. For Ukraine, the decisive asset of the coming winter is the interceptor in a depot today, backed by a transfer decision with a quantity and a date.

A Patriot license could help Ukraine build a stronger industrial base. It cannot defend Kyiv before the first fully Ukrainian-made rounds arrive, possibly in late 2028 or 2029. The latest $400 million US package contains no Patriot interceptors. Germany has pledged missiles from its stocks without saying how many. Poland’s transfer, by Donald Tusk’s count, was five missiles.

Russia benefits when licenses and frameworks stand in for immediate help. Allied governments should disclose what they will transfer this winter and release enough existing stock to sustain Ukraine’s ballistic defense. Europe should finance the cheaper interceptor layer at production scale. The Atlantic alliance guarantees liberty through shared risk. This winter, that principle has to reach the launcher.

Marcus Schuler