Russia's offensive stalls as Ukraine nets ground in May, and drones get the credit
Kyiv took back more ground than it lost for a second straight month, and independent trackers credit its drone strikes for choking Russian logistics.
Kyiv took back more ground than it lost for a second straight month, and independent trackers credit its drone strikes for choking Russian logistics.
Ukraine took back more territory than Russia seized in May. The net gain was about 282 square kilometres, an AFP analysis of Institute for the Study of War data found. It was the second month running that the map moved Kyiv's way, after April broke a two-and-a-half-year run of Russia taking more ground than it lost.
The numbers shift by who is counting, but the direction does not. ISW said different trackers using different mapping methods keep reaching the same conclusion: Russian battlefield performance is declining. ISW's own tally put Russian losses at about 280 square kilometres of control in May. The independent DeepState project logged Russia's monthly gains slipping into the negative, the Kyiv Independent reported.
Kyiv and ISW point to the same cause, and it is the wedge: drones. Russia's advance has slowed since late 2025, hobbled by Ukraine's frontline and mid-range strike drones, ISW said. They limit how fast Russia can push troops to the line and resupply the positions it holds. Starve the logistics and the assaults thin out.
The gains are still marginal. April and May together returned about 403 square kilometres, roughly 0.4 percent of the territory Russia holds, and Moscow still occupies just over 19 percent of Ukraine. Russian infantry keep infiltrating in small groups across much of the ground Ukraine reclaims, so the map and the actual control rarely match.
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Subscribe Free →Russia is also still massing. More than 71,000 Russian troops are operating in the Oleksandrivka direction, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on June 6. Ukraine claims it has seized the initiative there and forced Russian units onto the defensive. The drones bought Kyiv its first positive months in years. Whether they can hold a line against 71,000 men is the next test.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much territory did Ukraine regain in May?
Ukraine netted about 282 square kilometres in May, recapturing more than it lost, according to an AFP analysis of Institute for the Study of War data. ISW's own count put Russian losses at roughly 280 square kilometres of control over the month.
Is this the first time Russia has lost ground?
April 2026 was the first month in two and a half years that Russian forces gave up more ground than they seized, the AFP analysis of ISW data found. May was the second straight month the balance favoured Ukraine.
Do all the trackers agree?
The exact figures differ by methodology, but ISW says separate trackers keep reaching the same conclusion that Russian battlefield performance is declining. The independent DeepState project also logged Russia's monthly gains turning negative in May, the Kyiv Independent reported.
Why is Russia's advance slowing?
ISW attributes the slowdown to Ukraine's frontline and mid-range drone strike campaigns, which it says are limiting Russia's ability to transport personnel to the front and to supply and sustain its positions there.
How significant are Ukraine's gains?
They remain marginal. April and May together returned about 403 square kilometres, roughly 0.4 percent of the territory Russia holds, and Moscow still occupies just over 19 percent of Ukraine. Russian troops also keep infiltrating much of the reclaimed ground in small groups, ISW said.
Where is Russia concentrating its forces?
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on June 6 that more than 71,000 Russian troops are operating in the Oleksandrivka direction, where Ukraine says it has seized the initiative and forced Russian units onto the defensive.
Marcus Schuler
Marcus Schuler edits BattlePolicy, a daily defense-technology brief connecting the companies and capabilities behind modern war to the contest among Europe, the US, Russia, and China.