Latvia's army chief warns Russia's drone scale opens a 2028 window on the Baltics
Russia's edge is the scale of its drone production, not its technology, Latvia's commander told the Financial Times, and Europe will not finish rearming until after the window he fears closes.
Russia's edge is the scale of its drone production, not its technology, Latvia's commander told the Financial Times, and Europe will not finish rearming until after the window he fears closes.
Russia has built a drone-warfare advantage over NATO and could exploit a "window of opportunity" by the end of 2028 to move against the Baltic states, Latvia's armed forces commander, General Kaspars Pudāns, told the Financial Times. The advantage is volume, not invention, he said. Russia can replace losses fast and put up drones in huge numbers: "They are able to quickly replenish the stocks, to have big numbers on a big scale."
Much of that came out of the war in Ukraine, where Russian forces have adapted drones in combat faster than NATO manages in peacetime, Pudāns said. The alliance holds far fewer and has barely flown them under fire. When the British Army wargamed a fight in Estonia last month, its commanders assumed they would run out of drones inside a week, the FT reported.
Pudāns pinned the 2028 date to Europe's calendar. Most of the continent's army modernization programs will not deliver until about 2029. The EU does not expect to field credible deterrence before 2030, and NATO only agreed last year to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, a target set for 2035. "If I were in the Kremlin," he said, "I would say if we do something, then we should do it by the end of 2028."
Russia cannot launch a large-scale invasion while it is tied down in Ukraine, Pudāns said. That could change fast if the war stopped. Sabotage, cyberattacks and other hybrid pressure, he warned, could come "already tonight." Any conventional clash would likely begin in the Baltics, where Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom each command a NATO brigade.
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Subscribe Free →Russia has tripled defense spending since 2021. Measured by purchasing power, it outspent the EU and Britain combined in 2024, Euromaidan Press reported. Intelligence services in nine countries have flagged the same window for two years. Whether Europe's factories close the gap before 2028 is what the warning leaves open.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who issued the warning?
General Kaspars Pudāns, commander of Latvia's armed forces, in an interview with the Financial Times reported on June 4, 2026.
What is Russia's drone advantage?
Pudāns said the edge is scale rather than superior technology: Russia can produce drones in large volumes and adapt them quickly, telling the FT "they are able to quickly replenish the stocks, to have big numbers on a big scale."
Why the end of 2028?
Pudāns tied it to Europe's timetable: most European army modernization programs do not take effect until around 2029, and the EU's readiness roadmap does not target credible deterrence until 2030, the FT and Euromaidan Press reported.
Is a Russian invasion likely now?
No. Pudāns said Russia lacks the forces for a large-scale invasion while it fights in Ukraine, but warned hybrid attacks such as sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation could happen at any time.
Why the Baltics specifically?
The three Baltic states border Russia and are seen as hard to defend given NATO's slow reinforcement of its eastern flank. Each hosts a NATO multinational brigade, led by Canada in Latvia, Germany in Lithuania and the United Kingdom in Estonia.
Marcus Schuler
Marcus Schuler edits BattlePolicy, a daily defense-technology brief connecting the companies and capabilities behind modern war to the contest among Europe, the US, Russia, and China.