Russia's first diesel tanker for the US sails Thursday with 40,000 tonnes. How many follow depends on refinery units and export terminals that Ukraine's drones keep hitting.
The G7 will release up to 100 million barrels as Ukraine's drones keep hitting Russian refineries. Putin put the campaign's cost at 1% of GDP and said a strike pause would not return Russian diesel while sanctions stand.
Kyiv's strike ledger overstates the Russian refining capacity offline at one time. The harder metric is whether repeat strikes keep plants broken faster than Moscow can repair them, and that is the leverage Trump wants frozen.
Fire Point makes 300 to 400 long-range attack drones a day. Washington is asking Kyiv to curb their refinery mission while the Gulf drives the larger diesel shock.