Zelensky's Patriot License Points to a 2028 Raytheon GEM-T Line
The likely PAC-2 route avoids PAC-3's seeker constraint, but offers weaker ballistic defense from a European production base Germany hosts and Poland wants.
The likely PAC-2 route avoids PAC-3's seeker constraint, but offers weaker ballistic defense from a European production base Germany hosts and Poland wants.
The Patriot production license Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Sept. 25 is shaping up as a Raytheon PAC-2 GEM-T deal, a route that avoids the seeker bottleneck that stalled a PAC-3 license but buys Ukraine a weaker anti-ballistic round no earlier than late 2028. Zelensky said Donald Trump told him at their Sept. 22 U.N. meeting that he had made a "final decision" and Ukraine would receive licenses to produce Patriot missiles. The White House has neither confirmed the decision nor commented. Zelensky gave no start date or capacity, leaving the claim on one side's word.
Raytheon and Poland
After the meeting, Zelensky told reporters in New York: "My military adviser, Pavlo Palisa, had a conversation with Raytheon this morning. The company is ready." He put setup at one year to 18 months and called it a long-term project. Trump had described the licensed missile only as a "less advanced version." Defense Express assessed that Raytheon's involvement and Trump's description point to GEM-T, which Raytheon builds, rather than the Lockheed Martin PAC-3 family. The variant remains officially unnamed.
Polish Deputy Defense Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka answered on Sept. 26: "Let's see if it happens." If a Ukrainian factory is planned, she said, Poland proposes hosting it in "so-called safe territory." The same week, Reuters reported that the $400 million U.S. package being committed before Sept. 30 contains no Patriot interceptors. Washington had committed $307 million, with $93 million left and deliveries stretching to October 2029.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the US confirm Ukraine's Patriot license?
No. Zelensky said on Sept. 25 that Trump told him at their Sept. 22 meeting he had made a "final decision" to license Ukrainian production of Patriot missiles. The White House has not confirmed it or commented, and no licensing document has been published.
Which Patriot missile would Ukraine build?
The variant has not been officially named. Zelensky said Ukraine is negotiating with Raytheon, and Defense Express assessed that this, together with Trump's description of a "less advanced version," points to the PAC-2 GEM-T. Lockheed Martin builds the PAC-3 family.
How does GEM-T compare with PAC-3 MSE?
GEM-T uses a proximity-fuzed blast-fragmentation warhead; PAC-3 MSE destroys targets by direct impact. Defense Express estimates roughly 60% interception probability against certain ballistic threats for PAC-2 versus about 80-90% for PAC-3 MSE, figures it calls estimates rather than universal performance data.
When could Ukrainian-made Patriot missiles arrive?
Zelensky put setup at one year to 18 months. Defense Express estimates lines could run by late 2027 or early 2028 and the first fully Ukrainian-made missiles could reach the armed forces in late 2028 or 2029; assembling imported components could be faster.
Why does Poland want to host the factory?
Deputy Defense Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka proposed building the plant in Poland as "safe territory" and said Warsaw will seek its own Patriot servicing and production facility regardless. Poland already builds 48 Patriot launchers with Raytheon through Huta Stalowa Wola.
Does the latest US aid package include Patriot interceptors?
No. Reuters reported that the $400 million package the administration is committing before Sept. 30 contains no Patriot interceptors, with deliveries running to October 2029.
AI-generated summary, reviewed by an editor. More on our AI guidelines.
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Marcus Schuler
Marcus Schuler edits BattlePolicy, a daily defense-technology brief connecting the companies and capabilities behind modern war to the contest among Europe, the US, Russia, and China.